We saw sales conversations pick up steam across the board. Logistics, Tech, Investment, Marketplaces - all of those companies that had stayed in a state of inaction sprung back into conversations from where they left. D2C is growing. eCommerce is growing. Everyone wants in on the action.
What that means is, our team could not complete the full analysis we had planned. So next week it is.
But, we did make progress (as in, I). That also means I am going go rookie on some stats.
So here are some more insights sprinkled with anecdotes, for you.
Firstly, I am terribly sorry to inflict this upon you. I am comparing ripe apples with apple flowers. This isn't how statistics are supposed to be done. But, hey, didn't I tell you the real stats guys are doing some actual work and I had to step in?
Retail sales data from the US Census Bureau (as quoted by Yahoo! finance) is what you see in the first column. What you see in the second column in the change in traffic (unique visitors) for D2C brands in the same category that our models picked for comparison. I really had to struggle with putting a lot of companies under such aggregated categories. There are some sub-category specific trends that are so telling.
D2C performed better than Retail in every category. We are extrapolating revenue performance from traffic performance. While that is not accurate, directionally this should mean something. What's interesting about furniture is that people are buying storage units and shelves and tables for their home offices.
Message from our sponsor (That's us!): If you are keen at a sub-category level (say, meal-kits, home-based fitness machines, lingerie, mattresses, etc.) hit me up. We plan to get to some of these details in our paid report but if you'd like a deep dive across eCommerce and D2C for your category, we could do that for you. If you are looking for pre-built lists of companies they are here, here and here.
Now let's see some D2C categories and their traffic growth trends over different slices of time, shall we?
What you see above is a set of D2C category median growth rates for compared. We took Apr 2020 as the anchor month and compared against - (1) the monthly average for every brand in the previous year and, (2) the month where they had the peak traffic
The idea was to see not just whether these brands grew in April 2020 but also to see if they hit their peaks they hit in 2019. We have a few other cuts in our report (Q1 2019 vs. Q1 2020, accounting for launch PR linked peaks, etc.).
Fitness, Pets, and Grocery registered healthy growth compared to 2019 averages while the declines in Furniture, Apparel, and Kids have been minimal (when compared to the carnage we see in Retail). But, when we see the data cut for Peak 2019 vs. April 2020, we see Fitness and Pets as categories have been resilient. We are still not back to the glory days of D2C in several other categories. Several categories and companies have been having a second lease of life. So what seems like a jaded performance when compared to the peak of 2019 is actually good news for several brands. They'd have been counted out but for Covid-19.
Bear in mind that I have not included several categories here. So don't draw quick patterns from this slice.
Alright, I have other urgent things to move on to:
1. Convince my wife to repair the damage I inflicted upon my hair, in the name of a haircut
2. Sweep and mop the house, dust the surfaces to earn the above
PS: If you plan to quote this content, give us a shoutout and a link if you are publishing online :)
PipeCandy is a market intelligence platform that tracks the global eCommerce & 'direct to consumer' landscape.
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