We numb, sweeten, bend, or distract the reality using D2C brands.
For the last two weeks I have been sharing sneak previews into our research on D2C brands. Nearly 1000 brands have been picked by our algorithms and we analyzed their growth patterns by category and demographics (age)
This part is going to be short and data-rich. A detailed report is being prepared and we should have it ready before the end of the week. An abstract of the report will be made available to whoever asked for it. The 'paid version' of the report will be available on our website (link).
There is a lot being talked about (on Twitter, among the D2C club members - not to be confused with Clubhouse, the social chatroom for the famous and loud) D2C segments and which ones are having record growth rates due to Covid-19.
One way to size up the impact of Covid-19 is to look at the traffic numbers of these brands in 2019 and project the trends for 2020 assuming it would be a normal world from the vantage point of Dec 2019 (Ha! Ha!) and compare that with how things actually panned out between Jan 2020 and April 2020 (Uh! Oh!). We did consider and account for blips in numbers due to launch/PR activities in our forecasting model. The more positive the deviation is of the actual from the forecast, the better the category is doing.
I can only hypothesize that a certain virus caused the change in the trajectory.
Without, further ado, here is what we found:
Kids, cookware and kitchen tools, apparel, fine jewelry, fashion, women's health, mattresses, furniture, and skincare actually deviated negatively from the forecast. This is not to say that these categories declined. We are actually saying that these categories didn't keep up with the growth trends they orchestrated in 2019. That said, the devil is in the details. For instance, within furniture, there is a category of D2C brands that sell shelves and office furniture. Consumers did invest in them heavily, presumably to allow participants in the Zoom call to absorb more the titles of the books stacked in those shelves than from the calls themselves.
Wine/Spirits, Grocery, Fitness, Babycare, Pets, and Nutraceuticals did better than anticipated. Basically anything that helped numb the reality (alcohol), sweeten the reality (food), distract from the reality (babycare and pets), survive the reality (fitness), or hallucinate an alternative reality (nutraceuticals) did well.
What's on our report:
1. Data on traffic growth rates of categories and sub-categories in Q1 2020, April 2020 compared to similar periods and all of 2019.
2. Discussion on key trends and exceptions spotted
3. D2C brands to watch out for in each category
4. Age demographic trends across D2C brands with different growth rates and across categories
5. Paid acquisition trends spotted among brands and categories
6. Optionally, the list of 1000 brands that we considered for the analysis.
If you are interested or know someone who would find our analyses very useful, refer them to me - Just cc and intro. Thank you!
PS: Feel free to share the above graph internally with your colleagues, but please do not post on social media. You are getting an exclusive preview of the data that is not for public consumption yet. I'd really encourage your points of view. If you have more data or alternative takes on what's happening, I am happy to give you a chance to write about your thoughts and insights in the upcoming editions.
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